The primary source of carbon dioxide emissions, coal-burning power stations, must be phased out if the worst effects of climate change are to be avoided. It turns out that’s far simpler stated than done. Global coal use declined twice in the last ten years, then began to rise again, peaking in 2022. The issue is that good intentions to slow global warming are neglected when there are concerns about keep the lights on.
How dependent on coal is the world?
According to Ember, a climate think group, coal was the primary energy source for more than 36% of the world’s electricity in 2022. (Natural gas came in second with 22%, followed by hydroelectricity with 15%, and nuclear power with 9%.) That shows some development. According to the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based group of industrialised countries working to ensure a stable global market, coal accounted for 40% or more of the world’s energy output between 2006 and 2014. Nevertheless, coal’s participation in the production of energy increased once again in 2020 after falling to 35% in 2019.
Why is quitting coal difficult?
Similar to how Western nations did before them, developing nations respect coal as a convenient and affordable source of energy they can employ to modernise their economy. The two greatest consumers of coal, China and India, have shown practically constant growth over the years: In comparison to 35% in 2000, they collectively accounted for two-thirds of the world’s coal consumption in 2022.
This has largely negated the increase in wind and solar electricity made by industrialised nations, particularly those in the US and Europe. And even those Western countries went backward. While consumption climbed in the European Union in both 2021 and 2022, coal-fired energy generation increased significantly in the US in 2021.
Why did coal use in the US and Europe increase once more?
As businesses closed in the early 2020 Covid-19 epidemic due to lower demand for power, natural gas producers cut output. The demand for power increased after limitations were loosened in 2021, but the production of gas took some time to resume. In a scramble to find a method to keep the lights on, utilities turned to readily available coal. Then, in early 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia started cutting off supplies of natural gas to Europe in reaction to European sanctions, which increased the use of coal to cover the void.
Could India and China make cuts?
There is an urgent need to address the fast rising demand for power in the two most populated nations in the world in the near future. President Xi Jinping of China, which consumes greater quantities of coal than all other nations combined, promised that coal use would reach its highest by 2026, and his administration has plans to significantly increase the amount of electricity produced from renewable sources.
To prevent electricity shortages that could harm the economy, officials have pushed miners of coal to increase output to record levels and the country is increasing its fleet of coal-fired power plants. The largest energy producer in India, state-run NTPC Ltd., began coal plant construction in 2022 after a lengthy pause.
What about other nations?
The US, UK, Germany, France, and the EU as a whole offered $8.5 billion to hasten and facilitate the anticipated renewable energy transition in South Africa, which is currently dependent on coal for four-fifths of its power, which may become a template for international cooperative action. Similar finance alliances are in the works to assist Vietnam and Indonesia in making the switch away from coal.
South Africa will get loans, grants, and low-interest funding in exchange for lowering its dependency on coal for the production of electricity. These funds will be used to help close outmoded power facilities and substitute them with renewable energy sources. However, as another indication of how challenging it can be to stop using coal, South Africa’s government has already requested more time for the changeover because it is also dealing with ongoing blackouts brought on by an energy shortage.
What is the prognosis?
The IEA predicts that after reaching a plateau in 2023, coal demand will start to drop once more. Through 2025, it predicts that the quantity of electricity produced by coal in the EU and the US will decline by 10% and 7%, respectively, with solar, wind, and (mostly in Europe) nuclear power stepping in to fill the gap. However, much bigger steps will be required to reach the frequently mentioned target of “net zero” global emissions by 2050.
Net zero refers to the reduction of fossil fuel emissions to the point that the remainder is balanced by other actions, such as the planting of trees or the use of technology to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. By 2050, worldwide coal consumption would have to decline by 90%, and the remaining coal would have to be managed.
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